Wednesday, 10 June 2009

Cameron Blames BNP

Quite frankly, I find his argument at PMQs today absolutely appalling.

He opposes the idea of proportional representation, because it sees the election of the BNP.

Firstly, is David Cameron, an apparent liberal, actually saying he will deliberately remove the choice of a democratic country?

Let's say that under an extremely proportional system of voting, we get 10% of BNP MPs. So they might end up with around 60 MPs (and that's under extreme proportionality, which probably would not happen in the UK). That is far from a Government. Nor would any Party willingly enter into a Coalition with them.

But surely, if 10% of British people want to vote for the BNP, they should be allowed to? I'll stay away from Voltaire, because he's over-quoted and, lets face it, supported a benevolent dictatorship rather than a modern democracy. But his quote really does stand the test of time. It is the fundamental flaw of democracy, that we have to let the people vote. It is irritating, it is inconvenient, it is inefficient, but holy crap it's exciting, vital and incredible.

If we ever lose the argument against the BNP, with the British people, so much so that over 50% of people start wanting to support a Fascist state...

...well, quite frankly, at that point we deserve to live in a Fascist state.

For me? I have a lot more faith in the British people than that.

We are a country that has fought fascism.

We are a country that has stood firm for democracy.

So to see David Cameron apparently admit he can't win an argument against the BNP and therefore argue that they must choose an electoral system which disenfranchises the British People... I find that repulsive... from a purported liberal.

Tuesday, 9 June 2009

Tony's Redemption?

Faith dialogue is vital. When I heard Tony Blair's new role as a peace envoy, I was (and remain) extremely sceptical.

However, from the moment he launched his Faith Foundation, I felt there was something worthwhile there. Faith, in the UK, is a hotbed of ignorance and misconception on almost every side of every debate.

I came to Cardiff University this year. I remember the moments when I told people I was Catholic were met with alternating scorn, disbelief, horror or amusement. For the first few weeks, I'd hasten to add, "But I'm not one of those right-wing ones, its alright!" Needless to say, I've stopped that now. To anyone I meet now, I'm Catholic. That's it. That's all. If they take the time to ask me about my faith, then I'm sure they'd probably be extremely surprised at my views. But very few people do ask. They hear the word "Catholic" and assume that, despite being a Liberal Democrat, I am an anti-gay, anti-woman, anti-science, anti-everything moron foaming at the mouth whilst breathing incense for kicks.

There's actually very few Catholics like that, in all honesty.

I went to Catholic Primary and Secondary schools. State-funded. My school shaped my views of religion more than any other place. In terms of science, although the view is disputed by Richard Dawkins, we were taught the idea that: "Science explains how, God explains why." Dawkins hates that view, but it has allowed me to believe everything about science, to keep my faith, but retain a healthy scepticism about the hierarchies of religion - and some of their attitudes towards science.

Our school also taught us about other faiths. Admittedly, much of it is forgotten, and many of the early school learnings are. But I know enough to be able to argue with an absolute, single-minded passion whenever anyone tells me "Muslims hate Christians" or "Jews don't worship God" or some extremely wild and fundamentally incorrect views. To put my argument simply in regards to those views: Judaism, Christianity and Islam all follow the same God. Many people are surprised when you tell them that Muslims actually believe in the Virgin Birth (like Catholics) and that they believe it will be Jesus who leads the Second Coming (like Christians - although the name for Jesus and the name for the Second Coming are different of course).

It amazes me, as (I would hope) a semi-articulate Christian, that even in the UK there is such division amongst religious people. And where does it come from? It is not, as some of my more agnostic/atheist friends might suggest, because religions are essentially vehicles for hatred and division. It is not because secretly every single Christian, Jew, Muslim, Hindi, Sikh (etc) wants to destroy every other religion. It is quite simply, because there is a deep ignorance between religions.

Even amongst different kinds of Christianity, there is ignorance. Just look at the hatred that continues between Protestants and Catholics.

So for once, I applaud absolutely, Tony Blair. His move to get young people across different religions talking is highly laudable. If his Faith Foundation is still going in the next few years, it will have brought about an incredible amount of good. It is an organisation that all faiths (and none) can unite around, and work hard to end the ignorance which has doomed our world to endless religious conflict.

How long will it take us to realise this? Even the religions are starting to talk about shared values, as well. It is an often ignored fact that the Second Vatican Council - often derided for not being progressive enough - actually signally a seismic shift in the attitudes of the Catholic Church. It was during the Second Vatican Council, that the Catholic Church recognised the freedom of people to choose their own religion. It was an incredible decision which must have shaken the whole establishment to the core. But it means that even amongst what is viewed as one of the most authoritarian faiths (the Catholics), there is acceptance of other religions.

Lets work on it. Lets teach people about other religions. Lets shout about what unites us rather than what divides us.

It is a shame that Margaret Thatcher, one of the most divisive figures in British political history, took Francis of Assisi's prayer when she entered office in 1979. Any use of that prayer now would seem cliched. But really, it does apply: "where there is hatred, let me sow love." It is the duty of all and every religious person in Britain to work hard against religious ignorance.

Congratulations, Tony Blair.

Monday, 8 June 2009

Gordon Brown Is Keeping Labour Alive...

He cannot resign.

Although Labour is shattered as a Government, it is not yet destroyed. Any views to the contrary are deluding themselves.

Yes, Labour have done appallingly. But there are enough seats which will hold on as Labour to make it (almost) impossible for the Liberal Democrats to unseat them as the official opposition.

That outcome is the only outcome in which Labour is destroyed.

Anything they are doing as a Party now, is to stop the destruction of the Labour Party. It is not to limit their loss of seats, it is not to try to win the election. It is to keep the Party alive so it can oppose the Government and maybe win an election at a later date.

At the moment, in our unofficial Presidential system, whereby the media pressure and dislike for a Party is focused on the leader of a Party, Gordon Brown is drawing the ire of the public. Just like Blair did, before.

Some Labour rebels believe another leader might turn their fortunes around. They might do, temporarily. They might do enough to limit their losses. But it is a massive gamble. Gordon Brown is tainted. As of yet, Alan Johnson is less tainted. Were Alan Johnson to become leader before a Labour loss, he would become tainted. And after three consecutive leaders, the Labour Party runs the risk that their "brand" becomes tainted.

The debate is not really about "who is better for the job". The debate is about "who will ensure we do not come third behind the Liberal Democrats in a General Election". Unless we as a Party suddenly gain many, many more members, or the funding of several wealthy businessmen, or (if we wanted one) the backing of a union, there is no way we can physically or monetarily compete in every seat in the country. Because of the terrible electoral system, we are forced to concentrate our resources in a way that means we cannot challenge Labour everywhere.

So, what do Labour know? They know the Liberal Democrats will do amazingly well in the next General Election. We are in second place in many Labour seats. These, if we work them hard enough, should fall like rotten apples. But they also know our limits. As I said before, we cannot fight in every constituency.

If we beat them in the popular vote share (as is possible) but (as is likely) fail to overtake their number of seats, the Labour Party has one more term to stave off destruction. Basically, we can win lots of seats in the next General Election. Then there are the next series of seats, which we can probably win in the one after.

Labour has probably accepted it will lose the election. It will want to weather the Liberal Democrat storm. Then it will want a "clean" leader, of an untainted "brand" to start fighting back, as an Official Opposition. This it can do, if the unpopular Brown resigns the night of their loss, vowing that Labour will renew itself.

Then, in steps Alan Johnson. The rough diamond, opposing David Cameron's sleek new Tories. The Liberal Democrats, after an incredible night of major wins, will start being squeezed out of coverage again. The Labour Party is not destroyed.

Or... the rebels could have their way, and depose Gordon Brown. Alan Johnson (and by extension, the Labour brand) would become tainted. No new unifying candidate could be found after the loss in 2010. The Liberal Democrats would be united, fresh and new. They would in the next Parliament make great gains, and in the next election (2014/15) they could overtake Labour.

We all know Gordon Brown is a Labour man to the core. He cannot resign. If he resigns, his Party is destroyed. In a way (if I am correct, and to be honest, I'm not that certain I am, this is just a theory), Gordon Brown is taking an extremely noble stand for his Party. He will go down in history as the man worse than Michael Foot. But in reality, he might just be the man to save it.

Or... he's just an arrogant wanker who can't abide losing control, and I'm talking bollocks. :) Feel free to contribute!

Bad Result? In Wales? Hmm...

Alright, so we didn't win. Nor did our vote share increase.

But...

1. We won Cardiff Central (no surprise, really, but last Euro election we did not)
2. We came just over 170 votes behind Labour in Newport East.
3. We came around 300 votes behind Labour in Swansea West.
4. We have shown that Cardiff South and Penarth is a three-way fight.
5. We moved up in Merthyr Tydfil and Pontypridd.
6. We moved up in Brecon and Radnor (good news for Roger Williams).
7. We moved up in Ceredigion (and if the swing was replicated, Mark Williams would be re-elected with a majority of over 1000).

Being from Newport East, let me just explain why we were so pleased at our result there.

We pushed Labour a very, very close second. From fourth place, we are now second. That means we fought against a natural Tory swing, in a natural Tory election. And still beat them.

So no, it wasn't an amazing night. But in terms of preparing for a General Election, its put us in very strong positions for several gains.

Sunday, 7 June 2009

The Tories Make An Enemy Of Me...

...well, more than usual, at least.

They are now shouting at Lord Sugar. How dare the Tories try to take my favourite TV show off air?

Alright, so Sir/Lord/Tsar Sugar might (or might not, who knows nowadays in this queasy world of slithering slimy snakes - erm, politicians) become a Labour party peer. Is that much of a change? This guy's been donating money and supporting Labour for years.

And anyway, I don't really care.

I've already lost one person terribly dear to me (oh, Margaret, Margaret, how I will miss your sweet elitist music... but we all know that when papyrology calls, we must answer that siren call) from the Apprentice.

If the Tories take the whole show away from me, because of a technicality...

...there will be war.

I might even join the Labour Party.

(Ha! Sorry, obvious joke!)

But seriously. Tories! Stay away from the Apprentice! Be careful. Its becoming a national treasure. Treat Lord Sugar with the same respect you'd treat the Queen, damnit.

Get your tanks away from this show.

Please! We've already lost Margaret, we can't take much more!

(I may have been struck slightly mad by the aforementioned loss of Margaret and also the anxiety of waiting for the European results)

Saturday, 6 June 2009

30/34 ahead of Labour ... and the Welsh Euros... and Tory Vote-Buying...

LOCAL 2009:

Well, I was a little bit disappointed by our results. Until I spent a few minutes going through the Guardian election map (more regularly updated than the BBC!). I found something in these elections which has really cheered me up.

Remember Nick Clegg saying to Gordon Brown the choice is between Conservative and Liberal Democrat?

After Thursday:

In 2/34 we are FIRST.
In 25/34 we are SECOND. AHEAD OF LABOUR.
In 3/34 we are third behind Labour.
In 3/34 we are third behind independents.
In 1/34 we are fourth.
In 2/34 LABOUR did NOT EXIST.

So, how many Councils are we AHEAD OF LABOUR? 30/34!

WELSH EUROS:

Well, at the verification in Newport, early indications (very rough of course, considering we couldn't see that many crosses) are quite telling:

In areas where we campaigned, we were the main challengers (and, we hope, the winners) to Labour. However, in areas we did not campaign we saw extremely large numbers of UKIP votes, and a fairly large number of BNP votes.

So what does this mean for our Euro candidate?

Other reports across Wales have had UKIP doing well in other areas. If UKIP and BNP split the protest votes in other areas of Wales, and we poll enough in our strong areas, we could still see Alan Butt-Phillips win. But really, everything's still up in the air. Completely.

If we don't win our first Euro seat, I'll be slightly disappointed. But I know we did very well in Newport East. And that'll be enough for me!

AND NOW THE TORIES...

Ignoring our two losses in the South West, we have largely increased our numbers of seats at the expense of Labour. In many Councils the Labour vote collapsed. The Tories were the main beneficiaries, but we picked up many of the votes as well.

Dare I suggest, that had we the support of a tax exile millionaire bankrolling our campaign to the extend of Lord Taxcroft (sorry, Ashcroft), we might have been able to challenge in more wards, meaning more councillors?

The BBC of course, never mentions the fact that the Tories have been spending, spending, spending.

Its a sad day when money buys the votes. And when money buys targetted votes, where the Tories absolutely twist the voting system for MAXIMUM gain.

Congratulations to every Liberal Democrat activist! I now can't wait for Sunday! Eek!

Thursday, 4 June 2009

The Mysterious Case of the Disappearing Polling Station

Horror struck the Newport East campaign room this morning. At 11:30am, we received a phone call saying the polling station had been moved from its usual place - without warning, without a single sign being placed anywhere near to direct voters towards it. 12:30, we hear news of another polling station having been moved without signing or warning.

Both these polling stations were in two of our key wards.

Turnout in Newport for the European elections are extremely low (25% being the highest, as of 8:45pm). Having been knocking up on the phone for most of the day, I am pleased that most of our voters have turned out. If low turnout for all parties is echoed throughout Wales, it means the result could become extremely interesting.

That being said, I'm having to fight off pre-result blues, thinking that we may not have dragged out enough of our voters to lift Alan Butt Phillips to the European seat he truly, truly deserves in Wales. But we did our absolute best, ran a full polling day operation - and if the exhausted faces around me are anything to go by, we've worked as hard as we possibly could.

I just can't believe we have to wait till Sunday to find out what happened... that's so long to wait!